For the last 40 years, Americans have lagged in recognizing the declining fortunes of their foreign rivals. In the 1970s they thought the Soviet Union was 10 feet tall -- ascendant even though corruption and inefficiency were destroying the vital organs of a decaying communist regime. In the late 1980s, they feared that Japan was going to economically overtake the United States, yet the crony capitalism, speculative madness, and political corruption evident throughout the 1980s led to the collapse of the Japanese economy in 1991.

rival：对手，竞争者，与...竞争，比得上某人　　　　　Soviet Union：苏联　　　　ascendant： 向上的；优越的；占支配地位的，运星

communist：共产主义的（者）　　regime： 政治制度，政权，政体； 管理，方法； [医]养生法； （病人等的）生活规则

crony：密友，好友　　　　crony capitalism：权贵资本主义　　　　speculative：投机的； 思考的； 推理的，揣摩的

Could the same malady have struck Americans when it comes to China? The latest news from Beijing is indicative of Chinese weakness: a persistent  of economic growth, a of unsold goods,  bad bank loans, a  real estate bubble, and a  power struggle at the top, with unending political scandals. Many factors that have powered China's rise, such as the demographic dividend, disregard for the environment, supercheap labor, and virtually unlimited access to external markets, are either receding or disappearing.

 malady：弊病，弊端； 疾病； 病症； 弊害　　　indicative：象征的； 指示的，表示的； [语]陈述的，直陈的       receding：逐渐远离，向后倾斜

 persistent：持续的； 坚持不懈的； 持久的； 坚持不渝　　　　glut：供过于求； 吃得过多，使吃饱，使充斥　　　　

 vicious：邪恶的，恶毒的； 有恶意的； 凶猛的； 有缺点的　　　　　demographic dividend：人口红利　　　　virtually：实际上，几乎

Yet China's declining fortunes have not registered with U.S. elites, let alone the American public. President Barack Obama's much-hyped "," announced last November, is premised on the continuing rise of China; the Pentagon has said that by 2020 roughly 60 percent of the Navy's fleet will be  in the Asia-Pacific region. Washington is also considering  sea-borne anti-missile systems in East Asia, a move reflecting U.S. worries about China's growing missile capabilities.

 much-hyped：被大肆炒作的　　　　pivot：转移，以……为核心，枢轴； 中心点　　　premised：以...为前提　　deploy：展开，施展，有效利用

  sea-borne anti-missile systems：海上导弹防御系统　　　　

In the lead-up to the Nov. 6 U.S. presidential election, both Democrats and Republicans have emphasized perceived Chinese strength for reasons of both national security and political expediency. Democrats use China's growing economic might to call for more government investment in education and green technology. In late August, the Center for American Progress and the Center for the Next Generation, two left-leaning think tanks,  a  forecasting that China will have 200 million college graduates by 2030. The report (which also estimates India's progress in creating human capital) paints a grim picture of U.S. decline and demands decisive action. Republicans justify increasing defense spending in this era of sky-high deficits in part by citing predictions that China's military capabilities will continue to grow as the country's economy expands. The 2012 Republican Party , released in late August at the Republican National Convention, says, "In the face of China's accelerated military build-up, the United States and our allies must maintain appropriate military capabilities to discourage any aggressive or coercive behavior by China against its neighbors."

 expediency：适宜；方便；合算；利己　　　grim：冷酷的，残忍的； 严厉的； 阴冷的； 可怕的，讨厌的　　decisive：决定性的，坚定的，果断的

 deficit：不足额，赤字，亏空　　　　coercive： 强制的，强迫的； 高压的

The disconnect between the brewing troubles in China and the seemingly unshakable perception of Chinese strength persists even though the U.S. media accurately cover China, in particular the country's inner fragilities. One explanation for this disconnect is that elites and ordinary Americans remain poorly informed about China and the nature of its economic challenges in the coming decades. The current economic slowdown in Beijing is neither cyclical nor the result of weak external demand for Chinese goods. China's economic ills are far more deeply rooted: an overbearing state squandering capital and squeezing out the private sector, systemic inefficiency and lack of innovation, a rapacious ruling elite interested solely in self-enrichment and the perpetuation of its privileges, a woefully underdeveloped financial sector, and mounting ecological and demographic pressures. Yet even for those who follow China, the prevailing wisdom is that though China has entered a rough patch, its fundamentals remain strong.

 brewing： 调制，酝酿，沏（茶），煮（咖啡）　　　fragility：脆弱，虚弱　　　　cyclical：循环的，周期的，环状的　　overbearing：专横的，傲慢的

 squander：浪费，乱花　　　　innovation：改革，创新　　　　rapacious： 贪婪的；贪财的；抢劫的；掠夺的 　　mounting：增长的，上升的

 perpetuation：永存，不朽　　　　woefully：忧愁地，可怜地　　　　underdeveloped：未充分发展的，经济不发达的　

 prevailing：占优势的；主要的；普遍的；盛行的，获胜，盛行；说服　　　

Americans' domestic perceptions influence how they see their rivals. It is no coincidence that the period in the 1970s and late 1980s when Americans missed signs of rivals' decline corresponded with intense dissatisfaction with U.S. performance (President Jimmy Carter's 1979 "," for example). Today, a China whose growth rate is falling from 10 to 8 percent a year (for now) looks pretty good in comparison with an America where annual growth languishes at below 2 percent and unemployment stays above 8 percent. In the eyes of many Americans, things may be bad over there, but they are much worse here.

coincidence：巧合，并存　　　　languishes：受折磨； 变得（越来越）衰弱，憔悴，受苦　　　　

Perceptions of a strong and pushy China also persist because of Beijing's own behavior. The ruling Chinese Communist Party continues to exploit nationalist sentiments to bolster its credentials as the defender of China's national honor. Chinese state media and history textbooks have fed the younger generation such a diet of distorted, jingoistic facts, outright lies, and nationalist myths that it is easy to provoke anti-Western or anti-Japanese sentiments. Even more worrisome is Beijing's uncompromising stance on territorial disputes with America's key Asian allies, such as Japan and the Philippines. The risk that a contest over disputed maritime territories, especially in the South China Sea, could lead to real armed conflict makes many in the United States believe that they cannot let down their guard against China.

pushy：有进取心的； 固执己见的，一意孤行的　　bolster：支持； 支撑； 鼓励； 援助　　　credentials：证件，证书，凭证

distorted：扭歪的，受到曲解的　　　jingoistic：强硬外交政策的，侵略分子的　　　　worrisome：令人不安的　　

outright ：完全地； 彻底地； 坦率地，不客气地； 即刻，马上　　　　uncompromising：不妥协的，坚定地　　

stance：态度，立场，位置　　　　maritime：海事的，海运的，船舶的　　　　

Sadly, this gap between the American perception of Chinese strength and the reality of Chinese weakness has real adverse consequences. Beijing will use China-bashing rhetoric and the strengthening U.S. defense posture in East Asia as ironclad evidence of Washington's unfriendliness. The Communist Party will blame the United States for its economic difficulties and diplomatic setbacks. Xenophobia could become an asset for a regime struggling for survival in hard times. Many Chinese already hold the United States responsible for the recent escalations in the South China Sea  and think the United States goaded Hanoi and Manila into confrontation.

rhetoric： 修辞学； 辩论法，雄辩术； 华丽的文词； 花言巧语　　　　ironclad：装甲的，严格的　　Xenophobia：对外国人的憎恶

regime：政治制度，政权，政体； 管理，方法　　　　escalation：扩大，增加　　　　goad：刺激，激励，驱赶　　

confrontation：对抗，面对，遭遇，对峙　　

The most consequential effect of this disconnect is the loss of an opportunity both to rethink U.S. China policy and to prepare for possible discontinuity in China's trajectory in the coming two decades. The central pillar of Washington's China policy is the continuation of the status quo, a world in which the Communist Party's rule is assumed to endure for decades. Similar assumptions underpinned Washington's policies toward the former Soviet Union, Suharto's Indonesia, and more recently Hosni Mubarak's Egypt and Muammar al-Qaddafi's Libya. Discounting the probability of regime change in seemingly invulnerable autocracies has always been an ingrained habit in Washington.

trajectory：轨道，轨线　　　　underpinned：加固基础，加强　　　　invulnerable：不会受伤害的，刀枪不入的，无懈可击

autocracies：独裁，独裁政府　　　ingrained：根深蒂固的，彻头彻尾的　　　　　

The United States should reassess the basic premises of its China policy and seriously consider an alternative strategy, one based on the assumption of declining Chinese strength and rising probability of an unexpected democratic transition in the coming two decades. Should such a change come, the geopolitical landscape of Asia would transform beyond recognition. The North Korean regime would collapse almost overnight, and the Korean Peninsula would be reunified. A regional wave of democratic transitions would topple the communist regimes in Vietnam and Laos. The biggest and most important unknown, however, is about China itself: Can a weak or weakening country of 1.3 billion manage a peaceful transition to democracy?

geopolitical：地理政治学的　　　　reunify：重新统一　　　　topple：倾倒； 摇摇欲坠，打倒，使跌倒

It is of course premature to completely write off the Communist Party's capacity for adaptation and renewal. China could come roaring back in a few years, and the United States should not ignore this possibility. But the party's demise can't be ruled out, and the current signs of trouble in China have provided invaluable clues to such a highly probable seismic shift. U.S. policymakers would be committing another strategic error of historic proportions if they miss or misread them.

 premature：过早的，草率的　　　　write off：流利地写下； 损失掉； 毁掉； 结束掉　　　　renewal：重生，更新　　　　demise：死亡，转让，遗赠

rule out：用直线划掉； 宣布…不可能，排除…的可能性　　　　seismic：地震的，震撼世界的